College football fans are writing off the Atlantic Coast and Big-12 conferences. But perhaps we need to pump the brakes.
“They aren’t competing on the field”
“They can’t keep up financially.”
“The revenue gap will continue to grow!”
“The ‘Super Two’ will dominate play-off berths!”
It goes on and on.
About two or three years ago, there was some talk about an alliance between the Big-12 and the ACC. Those rumors quickly disappeared. Or did they? Perhaps they just went dark and have laid dormant until the time is right.
While we have no evidence a deal between the ACC and Big-12 is still being considered, we do know that neither conference has made any new moves since the last wave of realignment to secure their positions at the top of the college football world. Seems odd, considering the reputation of Big-12 commissioner Bret Yormark.
Let’s break down the facts around these two conferences.
Follow the money trail…
The root cause of this era of realignment is money. The ACC and Big-12 are significantly lagging behind the “Super Two” (SEC and Big10) in revenue generation.
The ACC pays their schools the least in annual revenue distribution due to a disastrous contract with ESPN and a grant of rights agreement that has resulted in an internal revolt.
And the Big-12 doesn’t have enough fire power (market size and traditional power football schools) to attract a larger media rights contract.
With that all said, let’s speculate on a potential new partnership scenario involving these conferences.
Let’s play “What if…these conferences merge?
The ACC has plenty of football powerhouses and a heavy concentration of schools east of the Mississippi. The Big-12 has aggressive and visionary leadership and a valuable western footprint.
What if… these conferences form a new conference?
For discussion purposes, let’s call this new conference…
All-American Athletic Conference.
Ok, you say. How does such a new conference solve the issues currently on the table?
STEP ONE: Merge
The new conference would consist of the existing 33 schools from the ACC and Big-12.
STEP TWO: Expansion
The new AAAC would add three new schools to bring the total to thirty-six schools, including Notre Dame, Oregon State and Washington State.
STEP THREE: Return to a geographic model
The AAAC would organize into four divisions, each with nine schools based largely on geography. Here’s a potential model to ponder.
North Division (9): Notre Dame, Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Virginia, Virginia Tech
South Division (9): FSU, Clemson, Miami, UCF, Georgia Tech, UNC, Duke, NC State, Wake Forest
West Division (9): Utah, Stanford, California, Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Colorado, Oregon State, Washington State
Southwest Division (9): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, SMU, Houston, Texas Tech
The football schedule (12-games) would include eight (8) division games plus three cross-division games (one against the other three divisions each year) plus one out-of-conference game. The other sports would follow a similar model based on the sport’s traditional model.
STEP FOUR: Conference Playoff
The AAAC would conduct an annual playoff between the four division champions. Three games would decide the conference champion and be rotated each year. For example, the games on a given year might be held in Atlanta, Dallas and San Francisco. Or Miami, Indianapolis and Phoenix. Or some geographic spread.
STEP FIVE: Multiple Media Agreements
To negate any future media outlet exerting leverage, the AAAC would negotiate staggered media agreements with ABC/ESPN, NBC/ Peacock, FOX Sports, and CBS Sports. As few as two agreements or as many as four such agreements could exist. The below figures will be based on the AAAC media rights contracts.
STEP SIX: New Revenue Distribution Model
Instead of the traditional equal revenue distribution model, employ a bold new “performance-based” model. Here’s how it might work.
Base Distribution: All member schools would receive a base distribution of say $40M a year. That’s about the current distribution in both current conferences.
Division Champions: The four division champions would receive an additional $10M for performance excellence.
Conference Champion: The conference champion would receive the base distribution ($40M) + division championship bonus ($10M) plus conference champion bonus ($10).
This new distribution model could reward a school between $40-60M annually, based on their membership and performance excellence.
BOTTOM LINE:
The AAAC mega conference would yield significant power within the NCAA.
The AAAC would bring back geography-based scheduling and a return to sanity for all sports.
The AAAC would provide Notre Dame a clear and manageable path to a national championship.
The AAAC would bring two former PAC schools back into the fold.
The AAAC would reduce TV network leverage and control.
The AAAC would minimize the revenue gap for member schools and reward for performance excellence.
Can this scenario really happen? Maybe not for a few years until after current contracts expire, but yes, it is very possible.
GO CANES!
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